At a glance, his rookie statistics are less than stellar.  Oden averaged only 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks.  Of the 61 games he played this season, he averaged 3.9 fouls per game and accumulated 5 or more fouls 21 times.  Not bad, considering Oden only played 21:30 minutes per game.  If he were to play 40 minute per game with the same foul rate, he would accumulate an astonishing 7.2 fouls per game.

So, is Oden a bust? Or did he actually have a better season than traditional statistics indicate? In our article about Kobe Bryant, we praised John Hollinger’s player efficiency statistic called PER.  For those that did not read our last article here is a quick recap on how PER works:

“PER strives to measure a player’s per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace. A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons. PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team’s pace. In the end, one number sums up the players’ statistical accomplishments for that season.”

Oden Compared To His Rookie Class
Greg Oden’s rookie season PER was 18.13, ranking him second among all rookies.  Kevin Love had the best rookie PER with 18.34.  O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose finished the season with a 14.23 and 16.05 PER, respectively.  The numbers indicate Greg Oden was more efficient than Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo on a per minute basis.  However, Mayo and Rose averaged more than 35 minutes per game, roughly 14 more minutes than Oden played, and subsequently had more opportunities to help their teams.  Unfortunately for Oden, the most he could have played before fouling out with his rookie foul rate would be roughly 33 minutes per game.

Oden Compared To NBA Busts
Now lets compare Oden to NBA busts: Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi.  Kwame Brown’s PER as a rookie was 11.2 and his career high PER was 15.7.  Similarly, Olowokandi’s PER as a rookie was 11.8 and maxed out at a dismal 12.4.  Hollinger’s PER rating shows that Brown and Olowokandi never had a single season with the same efficiency that Greg Oden had as a rookie.

The Curse of Sam Bowie
Many Blazer’s fans believe that Greg Oden is another Sam Bowie.  The Blazers selected Bowie as their number one overall pick in 1984, passing up on Michael Jordan.  Let’s compare Greg Oden’s rookie year PER to the best year Sam Bowie had in the NBA:  Bowie played for 10 seasons in the NBA with a career PER average of 14.6 - Bowie’s career high in PER was 16.4.

A List of Great Post Players
Here is a list of dominant post players and their rookie season PER statistics:

Let’s not forget that Greg Oden is coming off of major knee surgery.  According to his blog, he recently started squatting again after a two year layoff. Oden may foul at an incredible rate and “look” terrible while trying figure out the NBA game, but the numbers say he is light years from being a bust. In time he will likely develop into the dominant force we all thought he could be.

Check out his rookie mix tape:

Related posts:

1. Not So PERfect
2. The 2009 NBA Draft
3. The NBA…Where Fudging Happens