Based on Hollinger’s Draft Rater, let’s take a look at who the best and worst picks would be for the 2009 NBA draft.

The “Worst Pick”: DeMar DeRozan (#9 pick in NBA draft)
DeMar DeRozan is a classic example of NBA “talent evaluators” becoming infatuated with a player’s physical attributes and apparent athleticism. DeRozan has been compared to Vince Carter because he appears to be freakishly athletic.  Scouts and fans repeatedly turn to DeRozan’s incredible athletic ability when anyone mentions his poor production on the basketball court.

If DeRozan was not the correct pick, then what could Toronto have done differently?  Let’s take a look at two other shooting guard prospects that were drafted much later than DeRozan, Chase Budinger (pick 44) and Danny Green (pick 46). Let’s compare their college stats with DeRozan’s:

To be effective in the NBA, guards must be able to distribute the ball, shoot from three, and hit their free throws. As you can see, DeRozan is not proficient in any of these categories. Hollinger projected DeRozan as the 54th best prospect in the draft, much different than his actual draft position, 9th overall. The Draft Rater ranked Green as the winner from the group, as supposedly the 8th best pick, but Budinger was also still well ahead of DeRozan at 31st.

If DeRozan is not an effective basketball player as of now, then his athletic ability must be what separates him from the competition. Fortunately, the pre-draft combine measures a player’s physical and athletic attributes and we can objectively compare the group.

We can see that both Danny Green and Chase Budinger held their own against DeRozan in measurements and vertical jump, while both exceeded him in speed and agility. It is true that DeRozan has incredible leaping ability, but his lack of horizontal quickness means he will have trouble guarding quicker guards. These results beg the question, if DeRozan isn’t as skilled as Green or Budinger and not noticeably more athletic, then were Toronto’s scouts mistaken when assessing DeRozan’s upside?  Perhaps DeRozan will be the first player to go against Hollinger’s Draft Rater, and somehow become more productive in the NBA, against great competition, than he was in college, against amateur competition.

The “Best Pick”: DeJuan Blair (#37 pick in NBA draft)
The San Antonio Spurs entered the draft without a first round pick, but still ended up making the best pick of the night. DeJuan Blair is the opposite of DeMar DeRozan: he is short for his position, has knee concerns, carried too much weight in college, and had elite stats.

First let’s see how Blair measures up to some other power forwards in the draft:

It is true that Blair is shorter than the other players, but his long arms give him a higher standing reach than lottery picks Blake Griffin and Tyler Hansbrough. One attribute that is often overlooked is his incredible mass. Certainly one can imagine Taj Gibson (CHI-Pick 26) struggling to hold his ground in the post, similar to how 2nd overall pick Hasheem Thabeet did in this video:

Let’s take a look at how that group faired statistically over the last college season.

Adjusted for pace of play, DeJuan Blair had the highest rebound rate of the group. In particular, his offensive rebound rate was more than two times higher than most other prospects in the draft. He had the second highest PER projection of the group behind Blake Griffin. What’s more, his field goal percentage suggests that he may be more than a rebounding hustle player. How did he fair against good competition you ask? When he played against Hasheem Thabeet (pick 2), he accumulated 22 points and 23 rebounds while Thabeet fouled out with just 5 points and 4 rebounds.

Time will ultimately judge whether Toronto’s decision to select DeMar DeRozan 9th overall will pay off, and whether the first 36 picks of the draft will enjoy more success than DeJuan Blair.  But something tells me that the Spurs got it right, and the Raptors did not.

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