Jack Brimberg and Bill Hurley of The Royal Military College set out to model the odds of winning in hockey or soccer after scoring first. They calculated the probability of the “first-goal team” winning the match after the first goal is scored based on the number of minutes remaining in the game. Their big break came when they discovered that hockey and soccer follow the Poisson distribution.

After adjusting for external factors, such as league position and seasonal performance, they came up with some interesting findings. Let’s assume team X is playing team Y. From the first whistle, team X has a 50:50 chance of winning. However, if the team scores 5 minutes into the match, with 55 minutes remaining in the game, then the team’s chances of winning rise to 70%. And, if they score the first goal much later in the game, with say, 25 minutes remaining, then their chance of winning the match rises to 80%.

It may not be earth-shattering to say that the team that scores first is more likely to win the game – but these numbers do shake things up a bit when you start to think about who the best players are. The player who scores the first goal in a game may be more valuable than the player who makes front-page-grabbing or “game-winning” plays that occur after the first goal.

Do Crosby and Ronaldo increase their teams’ chances of winning by getting that all-important first goal? Or do they merely swoop in after the first goal is scored with a flashy play or two to claim glory in the highlights tape? They’ve certainly had their share of flashy plays, but who knows -maybe they score the first goal, too.

No related posts.