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NHL, Soccer - Written by jeff on Friday, June 5, 2009 5:05 - 8 Comments

Goals are Good

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Do Crosby and Ronaldo increase their teams’ chances of winning by getting that all-important first goal? Or do they merely swoop in after the first goal is scored with a flashy play or two to claim glory in the highlights tape? They’ve certainly had their share of flashy plays, but

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Jun 5, 2009 7:52

Interesting but I think they are great players. I mean they score a lot of goals.


duder maggee
Jun 5, 2009 21:44

“with 55 minutes left to play in the first period of a hockey match”

you mean, with 15 minutes left in the first period of a hockey GAME? it’s a GAME, not a MATCH, first of all (soccer MATCH, hockey GAME). secondly, each period is 20 minutes, for a total of 60. thus, it’s with 15 minutes left in the first period, or 55 minutes left in the game.

is there a way to “undigg” this article due to these mistakes?


duder maggee
Jun 5, 2009 23:11

However, if the team scores 5 minutes into the match, with 55 minutes remaining in the game, then the team’s chances of winning rise to 70%. And, if they score the first goal much later in the game, with say, 25 minutes remaining, then their chance of winning the match rises to 80%.

still a game, not a match…. c’mon jeff!


Jun 19, 2009 18:38

Well i think this was an already established point. In a game like basketball where you have 35-45 FGM per team per game the significance of each field goal is diminished. But in a game like hockey or soccer where only 2-5 goals are put in per team per game then the significance of each goal becomes that much more. A similar point is with turnovers in football. Turnovers in football are committed at a similar rate as goals are scored in soccer. So the team that commits the smaller amount of turnovers has a higher likelihood of winning. I believe that the team that has a +2 turnover margin in football has a 77% higher chance of winning (you might wanna check my numbers on this).


Jun 19, 2009 19:47

Hey just found this article. The poisson distribution is a great thing. You would think a game like baseball would follow the same rules like woah says but it doesn’t. Therefore the prediction models aren’t as accurate. I wish you could do that. I would think that it would be interesting to see which players score the most first goals in sports that follow the poisson distribution. By definition they would be the most important players.


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