Fantasy, MLB - Written by daniel80111 on Saturday, June 6, 2009 20:56 - 2 Comments

No one is ever going to forget where they were when David Ortiz hit a 2 run home run in the bottom of the 12th inning in game 4 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees to keep the Red Sox from being swept and eventually leading them to their first World Series title since 1914.  So with Big Papi struggling so much this season, Red Sox Nation and baseball fans alike are wondering is he in a slump, or is he done?

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons that Big Papi is struggling.  Currently as of June 5th, he is batting .188 with 1 HR, an OBP of .281 and is slugging .288.  Those numbers are downright terrible, especially considering he had been batting between Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay who are both having great seasons.

Although some have claimed that he “looks” to have lost bat speed, no one has definitive numbers to prove this point.   Some statistics do tell his story though.  According to Fangraphs.com, he is swinging at an uncharacteristic 25% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to his career average of 18.4%.  Not to mention, when he is swinging at pitches in the zone he is making contact 82% of the time compared to his career rate of 86%.  His plate discipline is obviously one reason why he is struggling with a strike out rate of 27%, 6% higher than his career average.  So essentially, he is swinging at bad pitches and making less contact on pitches that are strikes.

One thing that is a bit odd is that he is hitting more line drives than he ever has.  His line drive rate is at 23.8% which is higher than his career average by nearly 4 points.  Not to mention he is hitting a fly ball percentage of 50% which is higher than his career average of 45%.  So it’s not like he is hitting weak ground balls, he is hitting line drives and more fly balls which should mean given Big Papi’s power, more home runs.  Yet his home run per fly ball rate is at 1.4% which is astoundingly low compared to his career 18.5%.  Which makes us believe his natural power may be a thing of the past.

It’s easy to give up on Big Papi right now given his current stat line, but we will have to wait and see.  To truly judge if he’s completely lost it and become Big Mami we have to wait and see if he returns to his career plate discipline percentages.  If he becomes more selective, and retains his line drive rate, there is no reason why he shouldn’t return to the David Ortiz of old.  Bad luck is also one reason he is struggling.  He is currently posting a batting average of balls in play at a low .254 average compared to his career average of .307.  So he is getting rather unlucky when he gets the ball in play.  Looking at all the numbers, there is a high probability that he may return to form as Papi, but the “Big” may be a thing of the past.