Just as was true for baseball until a short time ago, it has always been difficult to accurately measure a basketball player’s true performance on the court.  In baseball, a man named Bill James revolutionized the way fans looked at a player’s true effectiveness through sabermetrics.  And now, a man named John Hollinger has done the same thing for basketball, forever changing how fans will view the game’s traditional statistics.  Combining these traditional statistics, which you see in every box score, with underlying statistics that aren’t as highly publicized, Hollinger discovered his groundbreaking statistic, which he dubbed “PER” -  Player Efficiency Rating. This is how Hollinger described his new system:

“PER strives to measure a player’s per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace.  A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons.  PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team’s pace. In the end, one number sums up the players’ statistical accomplishments for that season.”

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Kobe’s PER.  This season, he posted a PER of 24.46, ranking him 6th in the NBA.  Lebron James posted the highest PER with a 31.76, followed by Dwyane Wade at 30.46, and Chris Paul rounding out the top three at 30.04. I know what you’re thinking: Kobe is older now and Phil Jackson rested him a bit more than in previous seasons.  So maybe we should look at the highest PER Kobe has posted in a single season, right?  Kobe’s highest PER in a single season was 28.11 in the 2005-2006 season.  At this point, it’s not a stretch to say that Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, and Chris Paul all three had better seasons this year (according to statistics) than Kobe Bryant is likely to ever have in his career… including that season with the 81 point game.  In fact, Lebron has already surpassed Kobe’s career high PER of 28.11 in three of his five seasons, and Chris Paul has posted the highest PER ever for a point guard in his first four years – a ranking that pushes him past even the beloved Magic Johnson.

One argument in Kobe’s favor is that he does have three championships, and is about to collect a fourth.  While this may ruffle the feathers of many Laker/Kobe fans, the most logical conclusion is that Kobe Bryant has simply gotten lucky.  In only three out of his thirteen years in the NBA has Kobe Bryant not had a teammate with an elite PER.  One of his most famous teammates, Shaquille O’Neal, has the 2nd highest career PER in NBA history, only behind Michael Jordan.  And his new teammate, Pau Gasol, is ranked 28th overall in NBA history with a career PER of 21.77, just behind all-time greats Dr. J and Moses Malone.  In those three seasons in which he didn’t have a teammate with an elite PER, Kobe posted a record of 121-125, a win percentage of .491. It seems that, if he doesn’t have another player with a high PER on his team, Kobe just doesn’t have what it takes to get to a championship.

Kobe Bryant’s ability to do the unimaginable leaves us star-struck.  Eighty-one points in a single game, 62 points against the Dallas Mavericks through 3 quarters,  61 points at Madison Square Garden breaking Michael Jordan’s previous record, 35.4 points per game scoring average in the 2005-2006 season… the list goes on and on.  When Kobe delivers a fadeaway jumper over three defenders, it’s all you can do to keep from drooling on the person’s head in front of you while your mouth hangs open in sheer awe.  But it’s exactly these types of feats which cloud our judgment when trying to view Kobe objectively as a player throughout the course of his career. And it’s these emotions that lead many to declare that Kobe’s the best. However, here is a list, just of current NBA players, who have a higher career PER than Kobe:

• Shaquille O’Neal
• Lebron James
• Dwyane Wade
• Chris Paul
• Tim Duncan
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Kevin Garnett

While Kobe Bryant is undoubtedly one of the greatest players who will ever play the game of basketball, raw numbers will never lie, and they indicate that he may not be as PERfect as everyone thinks.

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3. Mauer Power?

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons that Big Papi is struggling.  Currently as of June 5th, he is batting .188 with 1 HR, an OBP of .281 and is slugging .288.  Those numbers are downright terrible, especially considering he had been batting between Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay who are both having great seasons.

Although some have claimed that he “looks” to have lost bat speed, no one has definitive numbers to prove this point.   Some statistics do tell his story though.  According to Fangraphs.com, he is swinging at an uncharacteristic 25% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to his career average of 18.4%.  Not to mention, when he is swinging at pitches in the zone he is making contact 82% of the time compared to his career rate of 86%.  His plate discipline is obviously one reason why he is struggling with a strike out rate of 27%, 6% higher than his career average.  So essentially, he is swinging at bad pitches and making less contact on pitches that are strikes.

One thing that is a bit odd is that he is hitting more line drives than he ever has.  His line drive rate is at 23.8% which is higher than his career average by nearly 4 points.  Not to mention he is hitting a fly ball percentage of 50% which is higher than his career average of 45%.  So it’s not like he is hitting weak ground balls, he is hitting line drives and more fly balls which should mean given Big Papi’s power, more home runs.  Yet his home run per fly ball rate is at 1.4% which is astoundingly low compared to his career 18.5%.  Which makes us believe his natural power may be a thing of the past.

It’s easy to give up on Big Papi right now given his current stat line, but we will have to wait and see.  To truly judge if he’s completely lost it and become Big Mami we have to wait and see if he returns to his career plate discipline percentages.  If he becomes more selective, and retains his line drive rate, there is no reason why he shouldn’t return to the David Ortiz of old.  Bad luck is also one reason he is struggling.  He is currently posting a batting average of balls in play at a low .254 average compared to his career average of .307.  So he is getting rather unlucky when he gets the ball in play.  Looking at all the numbers, there is a high probability that he may return to form as Papi, but the “Big” may be a thing of the past.

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The two statistics that stand out most are his Slugging Percentage and his Barry Bonds like Home Runs per At Bat rate. In a 500 at bat season, he’s on pace to hit an astronomical 59 home runs. Not too shabby for a player that has averaged only 8.8 home runs per season. When asked about his play after hitting his 12th home run in his 29th game he said:

“I don’t know. I’m not really changing anything, my approach or anything. I just try to hit the ball hard somewhere and they’re starting to fly over the fence.”

Lets look at it a different way. Babe Ruth hit a home run every 11.67 at bats. Over Mauer’s 6 year career, excluding this year, he has hit a home run every 46.79 at bats. This season he is hitting a home run every 8.5 at bats. In the steroid era, this is a red flag.

Check out his jump in home run rate.

Check out his jump in slugging percentage.

It’s hard to look at Joe Mauer’s change in power as a natural progression. It is likely that Joe’s big bat will cool down as the season plays on, but baseball and steroids go hand in hand and people will always wonder.

Related posts:

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2. Big Mami?
3. Not So PERfect