Statisticians had predicted that no athlete would run faster than Bolt’s 9.69 time until 2030.  The scary part is, Bolt believes he can eventually run the 100 meter sprint in 9.4 seconds. Clearly Usain Bolt is of another planet. Let’s be honest, this man isn’t human.  At the ripe age of 22 he has already compiled an impressive resume. Let’s check it out.

1986: Born August 21 in Trelawny, Jamaica.

2002: At the age of 15, Bolt wins gold in the 200m and silver in both the 4×100m and 4×400m relays at the 2002 World Junior Championships in Kingston

2003: Wins gold in the 200m at World Youth Championships in Sherbrooke.

2004: Becomes first junior to break the 20-second mark in the 200m, clocking 19.93 seconds.  This is when his potential for greatness became evident.

2005: Claims gold medal in the 200m at the Central American and Caribbean Championships with a time of 20.03secs.

2007: Wins 200m silver at World Championships in Osaka, and also wins silver as a member of the 4×100m relay.

2008: May 3 – Posts the second-fastest 100m time in history at the Jamaica Invitational, clocking 9.76secs.

May 31 – Breaks the world record in the 100m at the Reebok Grand Prix, posting a time of 9.72secs in only his fifth race over the distance.

July 13 - Beats his personal best in the 200m, finishing in 19.67 seconds in Athens to register the fastest time over the distance in 2008 and the fifth-fastest 200m time ever.

Aug 16 – Wins 100m gold at the Beijing Olympics, lowering his previous world record to 9.69secs. Watch it below.

Aug 20 – Completes Olympic sprint double, winning the 200m in a new world record time of 19.30secs.

Aug 22 – Runs third leg as Jamaica score Olympic 4×100m relay victory in world record time of 37.10secs.

Nov 23 – Voted IAAF World Male Athlete of the Year.

2009: April 29 – Escapes serious injury when his BMW M3 car skids off road outside of Kingston and overturns. Requires minor foot surgery.

May 17 - Wins Manchester Great City Games 150m in world best time of 14.35secs.

Covered first 100m in 9.91sec and last 100m with flying start in 8.70secs.

June 10 – Wins 2009 Laureus World Sportsman of the Year.

August 16 – Wins gold medal in 100m at World Championships in Berlin, with new world record time of 9.58 seconds. Check out the video below.

Aug 20 – Claims second gold medal at World Championships in Berlin, with new world record time of 19.19 seconds over 200 metres. Check out the video below.

So what makes Bolt so unique and dominant? For starters, Bolt has an unusual body for a sprinter.  He’s very tall, 6′5″ to be exact.  When Bolt reaches top speed, his grace and athleticism are unparalleled. He kinda looks like a rich man’s Forrest Gump because of his upright posture.  It’s hard to imagine another sprinter being faster than Bolt in our lifetime.  He dominates races like Tiger dominates golf and Jordan dominated basketball.  It may be many decades before Bolt’s time of 9.58 is broken by another sprinter.

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1. 5 Best Golfers Ever

4. Ben Hogan
Hogan was the hardest working golfer the game has ever seen. He struggled early on in his career with a tremendous hook. It wasn’t until a friend recommended that he weaken his grip that he became one of the greatest ball strikers ever. He totaled 64 PGA Tour wins and nine major championships.  A tragic automobile accident hindered his career but he battled through the difficult times to become great.

3. Bobby Jones
Bobby Jones may be the greatest amateur athlete of all-time. Jones won his era’s majors (the U.S. Open and Amateur, the British Open and Amateur) 13 times, including all four in 1930 for golf’s only “true” Grand Slam.  His unique story underlines he passion for the game and competition.

2. Jack Nicklaus
It’s hard to blieve the second best golfer ever holds a record 18 major championships and, perhaps even more incredibly, 19 major runner-ups, welcome to Tiger’s world. It’s hard to say what would happen if they both played in the same era.  Jack’s legendary long iron ability, mid iron ability, and clutch putting were unparalleled during his era and would give Tiger a run for his money.

1. Tiger Woods
Tiger Woods is the most gifted golfer of all-time. Yes it’s true he struggles with his driver, but he is unquestionably the greatest irons player ever.  Woods makes a habit of knocking it stiff from the trees while his playing partners miss the green from the fairway.  When his putting is dialed in, he laps the competition by ten or more shots.  At 33 years of age, he already has 14 majors and has won 70 PGA Tour victories. He was golf’s youngest and fastest to 50 tour wins. He is 35-2 on the PGA Tour when in the lead going into the final round of a tournament.

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1. Usain Bolt – Fastest Man Ever

5. Bog Snorkeling, This crazy looking sport involves  swimming in water-filled trenches cut through peat bog. The trenches are 55 meters long, and swimmers must complete the race without using conventional swimming techniques.

4. Chess Boxing: Created in 1992, this sport involves eleven rounds of boxing and chess. It begins with a four minute round of speed chess, then with three minutes of boxing, and then repeats the cycle. Opponents either win by knockout or checkmate. Iron Mike vs. Bobby Fischer…

3. Toe Wrestling, The crazy sport called Toe Wrestling involves two people locking toes and forcing each other’s feet to the ground. In 1997 the organizers applied to have the game added to the Olympics, but were declined. However, it’s a very popular sport, and top player Alan “Nasty” Nash even appeared on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno in 1997.

2. Wife Carrying, Originally invented as a joke centuries ago (not much has changed), this sport involves male competitors racing while carrying a female teammate through an obstacle course. The official track is 253 meters, and has two dry obstacles and a meter deep water obstacle. Wife Carrying is now played around the world, and has a category in the Guinness Book of World Records.

1. Cheese Rolling, Competitors chase a giant piece of cheese which is rolled down a hill. The first person to cross the finish line at the bottom wins the cheese. Although theoretically the goal is to catch the cheese itself, that hardly happens due to its head start and natural speed.

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What a leader. His commanding voice and obvious leadership qualities beg the question, why has he struggled so much in the NFL?

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Game Theory is most commonly used in economics. In recent years, Game Theory has become more popular in the football world because football is a Zero-sum game – precisely what Game Theory was created to analyze. But how can Game Theory be used to improve play calling decisions in Football?

At its core, Game Theory tries to find equilibria in games. In an equilibrium, each player of the game has adopted a strategy that they are unlikely to change. The most popular Game Theory concept is the Nash Equilibrium. In a Nash Equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing his or her own strategy unilaterally.

So why is Game Theory a great fit for play calling in the NFL? An article by Advanced NFL Stats sums it up well:

“Coaches tend to find the optimum mix of plays subjectively based on a combination of experience, intuition, and tradition. Game theory, however, can provide the true optimum mix of strategies, assuming the strategy choices are clear and their outcome distributions are known.”

Unpredictably picking between run and pass plays based on play effectiveness data – or in Game Theory what is referred to as a “mixed strategy” – is the optimal solution. The Nash Equilibrium occurs when an offense is choosing its best proportion of play calls, taking into account the defense’s strategy mix, and the defense is choosing its best proportion of plays based on its knowledge of the offense’s strategy mix. This is possible because offensive/defensive play results (yards lost/gained) are measurable and therefore have solvable equilibrium points. So what can we conclude? Coaches and signal-callers may get caught up in the moment while picking plays in a football game. Game Theory shows that picking plays by gut instinct will never be as effective as solving for offensive/defensive equilibrium points and selecting plays based on those points.

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Based on Hollinger’s Draft Rater, let’s take a look at who the best and worst picks would be for the 2009 NBA draft.

The “Worst Pick”: DeMar DeRozan (#9 pick in NBA draft)
DeMar DeRozan is a classic example of NBA “talent evaluators” becoming infatuated with a player’s physical attributes and apparent athleticism. DeRozan has been compared to Vince Carter because he appears to be freakishly athletic.  Scouts and fans repeatedly turn to DeRozan’s incredible athletic ability when anyone mentions his poor production on the basketball court.

If DeRozan was not the correct pick, then what could Toronto have done differently?  Let’s take a look at two other shooting guard prospects that were drafted much later than DeRozan, Chase Budinger (pick 44) and Danny Green (pick 46). Let’s compare their college stats with DeRozan’s:

To be effective in the NBA, guards must be able to distribute the ball, shoot from three, and hit their free throws. As you can see, DeRozan is not proficient in any of these categories. Hollinger projected DeRozan as the 54th best prospect in the draft, much different than his actual draft position, 9th overall. The Draft Rater ranked Green as the winner from the group, as supposedly the 8th best pick, but Budinger was also still well ahead of DeRozan at 31st.

If DeRozan is not an effective basketball player as of now, then his athletic ability must be what separates him from the competition. Fortunately, the pre-draft combine measures a player’s physical and athletic attributes and we can objectively compare the group.

We can see that both Danny Green and Chase Budinger held their own against DeRozan in measurements and vertical jump, while both exceeded him in speed and agility. It is true that DeRozan has incredible leaping ability, but his lack of horizontal quickness means he will have trouble guarding quicker guards. These results beg the question, if DeRozan isn’t as skilled as Green or Budinger and not noticeably more athletic, then were Toronto’s scouts mistaken when assessing DeRozan’s upside?  Perhaps DeRozan will be the first player to go against Hollinger’s Draft Rater, and somehow become more productive in the NBA, against great competition, than he was in college, against amateur competition.

The “Best Pick”: DeJuan Blair (#37 pick in NBA draft)
The San Antonio Spurs entered the draft without a first round pick, but still ended up making the best pick of the night. DeJuan Blair is the opposite of DeMar DeRozan: he is short for his position, has knee concerns, carried too much weight in college, and had elite stats.

First let’s see how Blair measures up to some other power forwards in the draft:

It is true that Blair is shorter than the other players, but his long arms give him a higher standing reach than lottery picks Blake Griffin and Tyler Hansbrough. One attribute that is often overlooked is his incredible mass. Certainly one can imagine Taj Gibson (CHI-Pick 26) struggling to hold his ground in the post, similar to how 2nd overall pick Hasheem Thabeet did in this video:

Let’s take a look at how that group faired statistically over the last college season.

Adjusted for pace of play, DeJuan Blair had the highest rebound rate of the group. In particular, his offensive rebound rate was more than two times higher than most other prospects in the draft. He had the second highest PER projection of the group behind Blake Griffin. What’s more, his field goal percentage suggests that he may be more than a rebounding hustle player. How did he fair against good competition you ask? When he played against Hasheem Thabeet (pick 2), he accumulated 22 points and 23 rebounds while Thabeet fouled out with just 5 points and 4 rebounds.

Time will ultimately judge whether Toronto’s decision to select DeMar DeRozan 9th overall will pay off, and whether the first 36 picks of the draft will enjoy more success than DeJuan Blair.  But something tells me that the Spurs got it right, and the Raptors did not.

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1. Is Oden A Bust?
2. Not So PERfect

At a glance, his rookie statistics are less than stellar.  Oden averaged only 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks.  Of the 61 games he played this season, he averaged 3.9 fouls per game and accumulated 5 or more fouls 21 times.  Not bad, considering Oden only played 21:30 minutes per game.  If he were to play 40 minute per game with the same foul rate, he would accumulate an astonishing 7.2 fouls per game.

So, is Oden a bust? Or did he actually have a better season than traditional statistics indicate? In our article about Kobe Bryant, we praised John Hollinger’s player efficiency statistic called PER.  For those that did not read our last article here is a quick recap on how PER works:

“PER strives to measure a player’s per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace. A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons. PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team’s pace. In the end, one number sums up the players’ statistical accomplishments for that season.”

Oden Compared To His Rookie Class
Greg Oden’s rookie season PER was 18.13, ranking him second among all rookies.  Kevin Love had the best rookie PER with 18.34.  O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose finished the season with a 14.23 and 16.05 PER, respectively.  The numbers indicate Greg Oden was more efficient than Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo on a per minute basis.  However, Mayo and Rose averaged more than 35 minutes per game, roughly 14 more minutes than Oden played, and subsequently had more opportunities to help their teams.  Unfortunately for Oden, the most he could have played before fouling out with his rookie foul rate would be roughly 33 minutes per game.

Oden Compared To NBA Busts
Now lets compare Oden to NBA busts: Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi.  Kwame Brown’s PER as a rookie was 11.2 and his career high PER was 15.7.  Similarly, Olowokandi’s PER as a rookie was 11.8 and maxed out at a dismal 12.4.  Hollinger’s PER rating shows that Brown and Olowokandi never had a single season with the same efficiency that Greg Oden had as a rookie.

The Curse of Sam Bowie
Many Blazer’s fans believe that Greg Oden is another Sam Bowie.  The Blazers selected Bowie as their number one overall pick in 1984, passing up on Michael Jordan.  Let’s compare Greg Oden’s rookie year PER to the best year Sam Bowie had in the NBA:  Bowie played for 10 seasons in the NBA with a career PER average of 14.6 - Bowie’s career high in PER was 16.4.

A List of Great Post Players
Here is a list of dominant post players and their rookie season PER statistics:

Let’s not forget that Greg Oden is coming off of major knee surgery.  According to his blog, he recently started squatting again after a two year layoff. Oden may foul at an incredible rate and “look” terrible while trying figure out the NBA game, but the numbers say he is light years from being a bust. In time he will likely develop into the dominant force we all thought he could be.

Check out his rookie mix tape:

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3. The NBA…Where Fudging Happens

Jack Brimberg and Bill Hurley of The Royal Military College set out to model the odds of winning in hockey or soccer after scoring first. They calculated the probability of the “first-goal team” winning the match after the first goal is scored based on the number of minutes remaining in the game. Their big break came when they discovered that hockey and soccer follow the Poisson distribution.

After adjusting for external factors, such as league position and seasonal performance, they came up with some interesting findings. Let’s assume team X is playing team Y. From the first whistle, team X has a 50:50 chance of winning. However, if the team scores 5 minutes into the match, with 55 minutes remaining in the game, then the team’s chances of winning rise to 70%. And, if they score the first goal much later in the game, with say, 25 minutes remaining, then their chance of winning the match rises to 80%.

It may not be earth-shattering to say that the team that scores first is more likely to win the game – but these numbers do shake things up a bit when you start to think about who the best players are. The player who scores the first goal in a game may be more valuable than the player who makes front-page-grabbing or “game-winning” plays that occur after the first goal.

Do Crosby and Ronaldo increase their teams’ chances of winning by getting that all-important first goal? Or do they merely swoop in after the first goal is scored with a flashy play or two to claim glory in the highlights tape? They’ve certainly had their share of flashy plays, but who knows -maybe they score the first goal, too.

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The two statistics that stand out most are his Slugging Percentage and his Barry Bonds like Home Runs per At Bat rate. In a 500 at bat season, he’s on pace to hit an astronomical 59 home runs. Not too shabby for a player that has averaged only 8.8 home runs per season. When asked about his play after hitting his 12th home run in his 29th game he said:

“I don’t know. I’m not really changing anything, my approach or anything. I just try to hit the ball hard somewhere and they’re starting to fly over the fence.”

Lets look at it a different way. Babe Ruth hit a home run every 11.67 at bats. Over Mauer’s 6 year career, excluding this year, he has hit a home run every 46.79 at bats. This season he is hitting a home run every 8.5 at bats. In the steroid era, this is a red flag.

Check out his jump in home run rate.

Check out his jump in slugging percentage.

It’s hard to look at Joe Mauer’s change in power as a natural progression. It is likely that Joe’s big bat will cool down as the season plays on, but baseball and steroids go hand in hand and people will always wonder.

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Have you ever wondered whether or not the best team wins a seven game series? Well Leonard Mlodinow, author of The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, shed some light on this topic during a lecture he gave at Google. If you want to skip to the bit about sports its at 13:50.

According to Mlodinow,

“A seven game series does not tell you much, there is a 40% chance that the lesser team will win.”

He went on to say, if we wanted to turn sports into a science and see a statistical significance for the best team winning, meaning the best team would win 95% of the time, then the series would have to be much longer. How much longer?  To be much more confident in a series winner, a series would have to be 269 games long…roughly 3.2 full nba seasons!

Obviously a 269 game series is not realistic, so what can we take away? His calculations show that luck and chance play a large role in the outcome of a seven game series.

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